What's at stake for the Warriors vs. the Kings? Everything (2024)

Here’s a simple summary of the small-, medium- and cosmic-picture stakes piling up on the Warriors as they get set for their fateful first-round series with the Sacramento Kings:

The best way for the Warriors’ foundational figures to keep this together beyond the postseason is to win this series then keep on winning for as long as possible. Given the reality of the contracts, dollars and ages involved, that’s the best, worthiest and probably only way.

If the Warriors go through everybody and win the fifth championship of this era, of course there will be every incentive on all sides to go for No. 6 in 2023-24. At minimum, if the Warriors beat the Kings and avoid a blowout loss in the second round, there will be reasons and revenue to avoid a hard reset.

But if the Warriors look creaky against the Kings and lose this series … well, there’s not much doubt that this thing could start breaking apart. If the Warriors can’t get past the Kings, this might be the last time for this core group. Draymond Green can opt out this summer and become a free agent. Bob Myers will be a free agent, too. It won’t be anything close to cheap to retain either one of them. And if things go sour in these playoffs, the Warriors could try to move off of Klay Thompson’s remaining contracted year or retool by seeing what they can get for Jordan Poole.

Which is why I asked Stephen Curry what he’s thinking about as he heads into Game 1 of his ninth Warriors postseason.

“That it’s not the last time,” Curry said after practice on Wednesday. “But it doesn’t really matter right now. We understand the implications. I think Draymond said the other day we’re measured by how we play in the playoffs. Just the fact that we got through 82 (games), 6 seed and all that … it was an emotional roller coaster all year. But the implications on how our season finishes, we understand (that) it kind of dictates a lot of the conversation around us and always has.

“We’ve just had tremendous success in letting our play speak for what should happen around here. So that’s the same way your approach this season, this playoff run. Because this business, it is what it is. And there’s a lot that gets thrown at you emotionally of what could be or what might happen or whatever the hypotheticals. But when we win, everybody gets rewarded. And that’s what our goal is. Trying to make that happen.”

There it is, right there. When the Warriors win, everybody gets rewarded. That’s been true since the dynasty started in 2015, with an upstart run through the postseason, and it’s been true for the eight seasons that have followed. The Warriors have the trophies and the luxury-tax bills to prove it.

But they’ve got to win. And they know what will happen if they don’t.

Here’s another summary: The Warriors feel pretty good about the whole thing right now. With Andrew Wiggins getting rave reviews from his two scrimmages this week, looking very likely to play in Game 1 and possibly move toward a starting role later in the series, and with the Warriors coming off of a 5-1 finish to the regular season, this doesn’t sound like the wind-down of an era.

“The vibe this year is we’re defending champs but it’s taken us a while to get to this point where we have things kind of falling into place,” Steve Kerr said Wednesday. “I think everybody is in a good, positive mindset.”

So this is a good time to take a look at some of the specific stakes and significant matchups involved in this series and a little beyond:

If they lose to the Kings, the Warriors won’t be the NBA’s playoff alphas anymore

How many times have the Curry/Draymond/Klay Warriors gone up against a more athletic, potentially more talented team that seemed to be on the cusp of title relevance and then shoved that team back to the ground? We can start with the 2016 Thunder, go to the 2018 Rockets and add in the 2022 Grizzlies and Celtics.

The Warriors have only lost two series since the start of their title run (they’re 22-2 in Kerr’s tenure) and both were to all-time great playoff performers (LeBron James’ Cavaliers in 2016 and Kawhi Leonard’s Raptors in 2019) and both losses involved some key Warriors absences or injuries.

But against opponents without a first-ring Hall of Famer in his prime? The Warriors figure out those kinds of teams. They get into a rhythm, they think through it, they divine the weaknesses. And they win. There is a distinct difference between the Warriors in the playoffs and everybody else, especially a team like the Kings, who are making their first postseason appearance since 2006.

It’s De’Aaron Fox’s playoff debut. Same for Keegan Murray. Domantas Sabonis was 0-3 in the first round in his years with Oklahoma City and Indiana. Interestingly, the Kings’ playoff veteran is none other than Harrison Barnes, who accumulated all of his 64-game postseason experience while playing with the Warriors.

The Kings are very talented. They deserve the 3 seed and home-court advantage. But the Warriors deserve to be favored, which they are, because they’ve gone through a lot of teams just like the Kings, or better. And if the Warriors can’t do it this time, it won’t be hard to figure out the significance.

Mike Brown is an illustrious coaching rival

Kerr has never lost a Western Conference playoff series as Warriors coach. It’d be a little fitting if the West coach who ends that streak is Brown, who served the previous six seasons as Kerr’s No. 1 assistant and clearly has brought so much energy and focus to the Kings.

More to the point: Brown could’ve done everything possible to avoid the Warriors in this matchup and he didn’t do that. Brown could’ve played his starters late last week and tried to beat the Warriors, which would’ve knocked the Warriors out of the 6 seed and out of this series. But Brown rested Fox, Sabonis and others, the Warriors won and the die was mostly cast.

On Wednesday, Kerr said that Brown texted him the night before the game to tell him the Kings would be sitting a bunch of headliners, out of courtesy. Kerr said he would’ve done the same things in Brown’s place. But I also think the Warriors recognize and respect that Brown could’ve tried to elude the Warriors and didn’t do it. He wasn’t going to show fear. He wanted his top guys to rest and he wanted them to know that it’s OK to draw the Warriors.

You know what that is? That’s a Warriors-style thought process.

If the Warriors get passed by the Kings, there will be more motivation to add younger players, not veterans

Trading James Wiseman last February for a package that returned Gary Payton II to the Warriors did a lot of good things for the Warriors, but what it did not do is make them any younger (or taller). That was a trade to make sure the franchise didn’t waste another great Curry season. That was a trade that acknowledged Wiseman, the No. 2 pick in 2020, was developing too slowly for a team that wanted to keep winning titles. That was a trade made by a team that still believed it could be a player away from getting back to the finals.

Trading Wiseman was for the now, not for the future. And GP2 assuredly will help the Warriors in this playoff run. But in the aftermath of a potential playoff loss, the Warriors might conclude that they’re more than a player away from contention. And if they’re in that mode, they’d want more young players, not fewer; and they’d want fewer veteran role players, not more.

They’ll have Curry next season for sure. Add on Wiggins and Kevon Looney. Probably Klay and Poole, too, though, as mentioned above, I don’t think Klay and Poole are automatics to stick around if things go south. Draymond is a question mark. The Warriors would also have Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and Patrick Baldwin Jr. as their youth brigade. Is that enough to make the playoffs even if Draymond departs? Probably. But unless the Warriors get somebody extraordinary to replace Draymond, I doubt it’d be enough to contend for a title. And if it’s not enough to contend for a title, it all might break apart, anyway.

The deeper they go in the playoffs, the more money the Warriors will have to spend in the offseason

My general estimation is that the Warriors will make about $2 million in profit in ticket revenue (out of $7 million in total box office) for each home date in the first and second rounds. That probably would go up to about $4 million in profit for each Western Conference finals home date (out of about $10 million in total revenue) and then about $6 million profit (out of close to $20 million in total revenue) for each NBA Finals home date.

So for this postseason, let’s say the Warriors will get three home dates for the first round (which means taking it at least to Game 6 at Chase Center). That’s $6 million in added profit. Then if they win this round, that could be three more home dates in the second round, so another $6 million in profit. That’s $12 million in extra revenue that the Warriors wouldn’t have had if they didn’t make the postseason and win a round. If they go another round, you can keep doing the math. (The Warriors made about $40 million in profit from postseason ticket sales, from a gross revenue of more than $120 million, during last season’s championship run, when they had 12 home dates.)

The Warriors are rich. They’ve gotten through the pandemic and they’re raking in revenue. And Joe Lacob has spent enormously to keep this thing going. But a large part of the money machine is based on many playoff home dates. If they don’t get them, the whole enterprise suffers. Yes, there are huge financial pressures coming up, Lacob emphasized to me a few months ago.

“But I think it all depends on what happens the rest of the year,” Lacob said back then. “We’ll evaluate this summer and see what we need to do next year. I really don’t know the answers at this point.”

Draymond likely wants a two- or three-year extension. Myers should be paid at the top of the industry, if not higher. If you want a general idea of how the Warriors might pay for these things, keep an eye on the home playoff dates — and the likelihood that this team can keep producing them for several years to come.

Of course, there’s a chance that Draymond or Myers or both might want to seek other opportunities no matter what happens this postseason. They have every right to make whatever personal decision is best for them, and they both will have many good options. There’s also a chance that Lacob and the rest of the ownership group will decide that the price tag for either or both is just too high.

But if the Warriors can prove that the Curry Era is still going strong, if they can beat the Kings and keep going, if they can show that their mental toughness is still worth a game or two every series, I don’t think Lacob, Myers or Draymond would want to break this up. If the Warriors come up short of that? We know what the stakes are. So do the Warriors.

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(Photo: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)

Tim Kawakami is Editor-in-Chief of The Athletic's Bay Area coverage. Previously, he was a columnist with the Mercury News for 17 years, and before that he covered various beats for the Los Angeles Times and the Philadelphia Daily News. Follow Tim on Twitter @timkawakami